Last minute Oscar thoughts

Meant to get this up earlier, but spent the weekend catching up on Oscar nominees (District 9 and Inglourious Basterds both a lot of fun, but not of the caliber of some of the other Best Picture nominees IMHO) and playing video games for a piece I'm doing on video game surround (thoughts on games coming in a later post).

Anyway, here 10 minutes before the Academy Awards are my picks:  both who I would vote for were I a member of the Academy and who I think will win.  Given the tight time frame, will keep explanations brief.

Picture:  Saw 8 of the 10 nominees (sorry The Blind Side and An Education, but I'll get to you soon!).  I think The Hurt Locker will win, since it's hard not to be impressed with all elements of the film and it's something everyone can get behind, while Avatar is an amazing piece of work but could (justly) be criticized for its story/script and be seen more as a technical achievement than a "best film overall."  But given its success at the box office and providing a jump-start for 3-D (with higher ticket prices, and something you can't get at home) I wouldn't be surprised if Avatar edges out The Hurt Locker on the strength of what it's doing for the industry as a whole.  For reasons detailed in an earlier post, I personally would vote for Avatar.  Any of the other eight contenders winning here would be a huge upset.

Director:  Tight race between Bigelow and Cameron.  Both deserve the recognition, and I'd be happy either way.  But I think Cameron's going to edge out Bigelow here (though this race usually goes with Best Picture and I'm picking The Hurt Locker there) for the sheer enormity of his achievement and vision.  He'd get my vote.  One side note:  having just finished Inglourious Basterds, I think that's Tarantino's best directing work since Pulp Fiction. 

Actor:  Have only seen Clooney and Renner in this year's race (of the two would vote for Clooney), the odds-on favorite is Jeff Bridges.  Based on the strength of the rest of his work I'm willing to trust the crowd and pick him myself as well.

Actress:  Wow, somehow only saw Sidibe here.  Favorites are Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep in a close race.  I'm guessing Bullock will pull out the win here; personally in a heavily biased opinion (having not seen the other nominees) I'll give Gabourey Sidibe my vote.

Supporting Actor:  Another category where I've only seen one (jeez, I know I spent most of 2009 holed up in an office writing my book, but I have a LOT of catching up to do).  But it was Christoph Waltz, who is the fave to win, and is also my pick having just watched his performance a couple hours ago and been blown away by it.

Supporting Actress:  Finally, one where I've seen at least a few of the nominees.  Mo'Nique is the smart pick to win, and I can't vote against her - this is a once in a lifetime performance.

 Okay, just heard the opening number start, so no more explanations at all, just picks....

Original Screenplay:  me: Inglourious Basterds; Academy: The Hurt Locker
Adapted Screenplay:  me: District 9; Academy: Up in the Air
Animated Feature:  Up (both)
Editing:  The Hurt Locker (both)
Art Direction: Avatar (both)
Cinematography:  Avatar (both)
Score:  Up (both)
Visual Effects:  if it's anything BUT Avatar, the race was rigged
Sound Editing:  Avatar (both)
Sound Mixing:  Transformers 2 (me); The Hurt Locker (Academy)

Okay, the show's now underway.  I realize I haven't hit all the awards, but in the last six categories I've seen either zero or one of the nominees and don't know much about the others so I'd just be taking a stab in the dark.  Enjoy the show!